Steelers' president Art Rooney II had an excellent interview this afternoon and provided tons of insight into the Steelers upcoming offseason and 2012 season. One of the biggest nuggets he revealed was that his father Dan is expected to return stateside after serving one term as the US ambassador to Ireland. Dan Rooney is expected to be back with the Steelers in a capacity to be determined. Great, great news.
Here's the other key pieces of note:
-B- The Steelers will add 3,000 seats to Heinz Field this offseason. The project was supposed to be completed prior to the 2011 season but was put on hold after the lockout.
-B- The team will wear a new throwback uniform in 2012. The uniforms will mark the team's 80th season. I have no inside information but I'll guess that they will be gold in color.
-B- Signing Mike Wallace to a long term deal is one of the team's top priorities this offseason. Rooney II said they will 'wait and see' on Mendenhall.
-B- Art didn't commit to bringing Hines Ward back and said something along the lines of the team having a bunch of tough financial decisions to make.
There will probably be more from this interview in the Pittsburgh media in the coming days.
There aren't many positives to come out of the Steelers dismal loss last weekend at Denver, but one of them is that I can now enjoy the rest of the playoff games without any stress. Every game the Steelers play in January takes at least a year or two off of my life and I'm looking forward to the next two football weekends, where I can just enjoy watching the games.
Here's my best guess at what happens in all of the divisional contests:
Denver at New England
Nobody thought Denver would beat the Steelers, so I'm hesitant to totally write them off this week, but if this game is played 10 times, New England is at least winning 9 of them. New England's defense is as porous as they come, but I trust their coaching staff to come up with a solid gameplan to defend Tebow. The Pats are going to hold Tebow and Co. to a lower point total than the Steelers allowed them to score last week despite having 1/3 of the defensive talent that the Steelers do. Also: Even thought the Pats have been eliminated early the past two seasons, I refuse to ever pick against Tom Brady in the playoffs. New England 31 Denver 13
Houston at Baltimore
Baltimore is the most well-balanced team left in the chase. Steelers fans have seen how good Ray Rice is and watching him battle Arian Foster will be one of the more entertaining matchups this weekend. Baltimore is more playoff seasoned than the Texans and the Ravens have played really well at home this year. I trust Joe Flacco about as much as I trust TJ Yates, though, so I don't like the Ravens chances to win the Super Bowl. But Rice and a stout defense will be enough to beat a banged-up Houston team who deserves a ton of credit for still being alive. Baltimore 21 Houston 13
New Orleans at San Francisco
The 49ers aren't a pretty team and I still have trouble figuring out how an Alex Smith-led NFL team is this good, but they are for real. I'd take San Francisco's defense over any left in the playoffs, but Drew Brees looks impossible to stop at this point. Even The Steel Curtain wouldn't be able to contain New Orleans' offense with the modern rules. The weather looks like it will be high 60s and sunny in San Francisco this weekend and that plays right into New Orleans hands. The Saints defense is about as good as any WPIAL squad but it will take a better field general than Smith to expose them. New Orleans 27 San Francisco 20
New York Giants at Green Bay
Upset special of the week right here. Green Bay has been shaky down the stretch and the Giants match up very well against the defending champs. Jason Pierre-Paul is going to have a huge day against a banged up Packer line. Eli Manning has been outstanding in 2011 as well. The Packers can't stop anybody and I think Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks will run wild in the secondary. Look for Manning to have some big plays down the field and scratch together enough points to outscore Aaron Rodgers who will be running for his life early and often. New York Giants 34 Green Bay 28
There is so much to discuss this week we decided to do a podcast. The very knowledgable Ian from The Steelers n'at joined us as well.
Topics include the Steelers stunning loss in Denver, Hines Ward's future, Tim Tebow, best and worst moments of 2011 and more
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And just like that, the season is over. For as much as everyone wants to be an expert, us here included, the playoffs are unpredictable. After all, who expected Tim Tebow to come out and get a triple digit passer rating? Who thought that the loss of Ryan Clark would make the whole defensive backfield fail to cover anyone? Let's face it. The Steelers were outcoached and outplayed. They looked like they were taking the Broncos lightly, and when you take a team lightly at this point in the year, your season ends pretty abruptly.
You can point fingers. You can try to decide what Kevin Colbert has to do to the roster this spring. You could buy a Tim Tebow jersey because you confidently declared that if Tim Tebow came out and beat the Steelers, you would. You could do any number of things, but none of it changes the fact that losing sucks, and now we'll join the likes of the Browns, Panthers, Seahawks, and Vikings, watching the important games being played on without us, wondering where we go from here. One thing we do hope you'll do is jump in and read the recap.
Okay, yeah, the Steelers lost in the playoffs, cool, we'll get to that tomorrow or something.
In the meantime, Maurkice Pouncey apparently ignored the game and didn't care about the loss, because he was too busy promoting some stupid T-shirt sale to commemorate his Pro Bowl selection and some iTunes album coming out at some point in the future.
When confronted about the clear lack of giving-a-hoot about the team, Pouncey responded:
Buckle up. This goes on. More after the jump. Caution: Profanity inside.
In case you didn’t hear, the Steelers are the fifth seed in the AFC playoffs, and they are traveling to Denver on Sunday. This means a date with Tim Tebow and the Broncos (but a clandestine date, nothing Tebow’s parents wouldn’t approve of). Will the Steelers be able to shut down Tebow’s mystifying ability to either run for a few yards or throw a pass between two receivers at will? Can Ben Roethlisberger build a lead large enough that the Steelers’ ability to give up fourth-quarter TD drives won’t be taken advantage of by anyone named Tim Tebow or Demaryius Thomas? I will attempt to answer those questions in our first-round preview.
Steelers Offense vs. Broncos Defense
Obviously, Tim Tebow doesn’t play on defense (though I can understand your confusion on this point if you listen to Skip Bayless), but the Denver defenders, especially Von Miller, will have a large effect on determining whether Tebow gets the credit for winning this game. The Broncos have given up 24.4 points per game, which is in the bottom third of the NFL, and the advanced stats mostly bear this out. They rank 18th in weighted DVOA (24th in passing, 13th in rushing). Advanced NFL Stats ranks them 17th on defense (20th in passing, 16th in rushing). Either way, their pass defense is markedly worse, which plays into the Steelers’ strength, since they’re without Rashard Mendenhall. The Steelers have been equally good at rushing and passing, at least according to Football Outsiders (7th in DVOA for both). The two key situations that will determine whether the Steelers put up tons of points in Denver will be third downs and red zone plays. Both the Steelers offense and the Broncos defense are fourth in the NFL in third down conversion percentage (45.9% for the Steelers and 33.5% for the Broncos), and they are both 8th in third down DVOA. Meanwhile, both teams’ weaknesses when Pittsburgh has the ball are in the red zone. The Steelers rank 21st in red zone DVOA, while the Broncos rank 28th. If the Steelers can break through in those two situations, they will build up a lead not even Tim Tebow can come back from.
Broncos Offense (Tebow) vs. Steelers Defense
Speaking of Tim Tebow, the fate of the Broncos offense will depend on the famous Tebow legs (and those of Willis McGahee), as well as whatever surprise long drives Tebow can muster in the fourth quarter. Tebow’s legs have produced 5.4 yards per rush attempt, which ties him for fourth in the NFL, only behind Cam Newton, Fred Jackson, and DeMarco Murray. However, despite Tebow’s six rushing TDs, he doesn’t seem to rush for many first downs, as Tebow’s rushing DVOA of -16.8% (meaning 16.8% below that of an average rusher) ranks 34th out of 41 qualifying QBs. Tebow seems to run the ball when things appear dire, which is a lot of the time, so even though Tebow gets a lot of rushing yards, those yards often are followed by a punt. Meanwhile, McGahee’s rushing DVOA is 7.0%, a very solid 16th among qualifying RBs. The Steelers rank 15th in rush defense DVOA, their first time out of the top ten since 2002. Their ability to control McGahee’s running (and to some extent Tebow’s) will determine whether the Broncos can best the 14.2 points per game the Steelers have allowed this season (first in the NFL). Why have I focused on Tebow’s (and McGahee’s) running ability? Their overall passing game ranks low by any measure. Football Outsiders ranks them 26th in passing DVOA, while Advanced NFL Stats ranks them 29th in passing efficiency. Tebow himself ranks 37th out of 47 qualifying QBs with a -18.3% DVOA. The only things Broncos fans can hang their hats on offensively are red zone and late-and-close situations. Their passing DVOA jumps to 18th in the red zone, while the offense’s late-and-close DVOA ranks 9th, mostly thanks to Tebow. The Steelers defense ranks fourth in late-and-close situations, a stat that may surprise some Steeler fans. Mostly, though, the Steelers defense has a huge advantage (even with the loss of Ryan Clark) over Tebow and the Broncos offense.
Special Teams
There isn’t much of note on special teams (and no, I’m just saying that because Tebow doesn’t play on special teams). Shaun Suisham has ranked fourth in the NFL with 8.3 points above average on kickoffs, a stat that certainly surprised me when I saw it. The Broncos’ special teams strength is their punt returns (mostly Eddie Royal), ranking fourth at 8.2 points above average, so the Steelers’ best strategy on special teams will be to not have to punt. But if they do, Jeremy Kapinos has been solid this year, so it probably won’t make a difference.
Prediction
In my opinion, there will be two possible outcomes in this game. In the first, the Steelers quietly demolish the Broncos, holding McGahee and Tebow in check, taking a 24-10 lead into the fourth quarter, and intercepting 2 or 3 Tebow passes in that quarter to end the game with a 31-10 or 38-17 win. In the other, Von Miller has five sacks in the first three quarters and the Denver defense has a great performance to keep the score at something like 14-10. In this case, Phil Simms will mention the name Tebow thirty times, Jim Nantz will mention Tebow 25 times (though he kind of has to), Steelers fans will probably have a sick feeling in their stomachs, with memories of Week 9 against the Ravens stuck in their heads, and thinking to themselves, “Why does Tebow have to be so religious?” The longer the Broncos and Tebow stay within one possession, the better chance they have to win (there’s my John Madden impression for the day). However, I think the first scenario is much more likely, because as Bam said on Twitter Saturday night, it’s a passing league now, and Roethlisberger is much better than Tebow in that regard. Steelers 31, Broncos 17.
Final “Tebow” Count (Including This One): 30. Success!
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I read on Twitter earlier today that 6 teams this season have 12 or more wins - Green Bay, New England, New Orleans, San Francisco, Baltimore and Pittsburgh. That mark ties the NFL record for the most 12+ win teams in a season. All of these teams are excellent and I wouldn't want feel confident if Pittsburgh played any of the other 5. But that doesn't mean there are a bunch of juggernauts heading into postseason play.
Here's a look at each of the contender's fatal flaw that will likely stop them from hoisting the Lombardi Trophy:
NFC
Green Bay Packers - A leaky defense
Green Bay is 24th in Team Defense DVOA after finishing 2nd in that category during last season. That's a massive drop. They are rated 23rd against the pass and 26th against the run. Outside of one game, Aaron Rodgers has looked unbeatable this season, but if he is less than stellar during one playoff game, Green Bay is in danger of being outscored. The Packers have looked so dominant this year because their defense generates a lot of turnovers. They've intercepted the ball a remarkable 31 teams this year, 8 more than the 2nd highest team. Again, relying on turnovers to bail you out every week isn't a good gameplan for consistent success.
San Francisco 49ers - Few offensive playmakers
The 49ers path to success in 2011 is a familiar one to Steelers fans: run the ball, don't turn it over and play solid defense. That might have won you a Super Bowl 6 years ago, but I don't believe a championship can be won using that strategy in today's league. The 49ers only throw for 183.5 yards per game, among the worst in the league. Michael Crabtree is their only decent WR and while Vernon Davis and Frank Gore are excellent players, they aren't explosive enough to score a ton of points in a hurry. If San Francisco gets behind early, they are in trouble.
New Orleans Saints - Another leaky defense
Like the Packers, the Saints dropped to 28th in Team Defense DVOA this season after finishing in the top 10 last year. Drew Brees and the offense are going to have to play outside at some point where they aren't quite as dynamic. I don't see any chance of the Saints stopping Aaron Rodgers in Lambeau Field.
AFC
New England - Yet another leaky defense
Surprise, surprise. New England's defense is even worse than their counterparts in Green Bay and New Orleans. In fact, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and San Francisco are the only contenders with some semblance of balance on each side of the ball. The Patriots defense gave up 21 points to Buffalo in short order last week. I'm sure they are hoping it snows a lot the next month in Foxboro.
Baltimore - Joe Flacco
Flacco is a tough player to figure out. He's played lights out during both games against the Steelers this year, but watching him all season long he is still a long ways from being a top-tier QB. He doesn't throw well on intermediate routes and too often relies on check downs. Flacco completed 57.6% of his passes this offseason, the lowest completition percentage among playoff QBs not named Tebow. Today's NFL is all about passing offense and the teams who succeed are often carried by a powerful QB. Baltimore doesn't have that.
Pittsburgh - Turnover margin
Starting with Week One in Baltimore, the Steelers have been awful generous to their opponents, turning the ball over early and often. What should have been easily winnable games against Kansas City, Indianapolis and Cleveland turned into near-losses because of giveaways. An aggressive Broncos defense could give the Steelers fits. What is perhaps even more troubling is the Steelers' defense isn't generating any turnovers at all. They are the only team in the league averaging less than one forced turnover a game. The Steelers are the most balanced team in the playoffs and nobody has a better history of playoff success. But they aren't making it past the divisional round of they don't start taking better care of the ball.
There's no point in recapping everything that happened in yesterday's game. Here's what you need to know:
- The Patriots won. They get the #1 seed.
- Baltimore won. They hold on to the #2 seed.
- The Steelers were powerless to change their seeding after all and remain in the 5th spot.
- The Denver Broncos somehow won the AFC West and will be the 4th seed.
- Hines Ward got 1000 catches.
- Rashard Mendenhall tore his ACL.
We fear no run game. Denver's magical/divine season comes to an end on Sunday. no comments
This is the most non-Steelers related post you will ever see on here. I was watching the Pens game on Root Sports tonight and part of their "all-access night" included showing Pens head coach Dan Bylsma in the looker room before the game.
Awesome right?
Only problem was Root didn't edit the clip carefully enough and the mother of all curse words found its way into living rooms everywhere.
Here's video/audio from the incident. Sorry for the low volume...be sure to turn it up. F-bomb dropped at :34 second mark.
The NFL announced Pro Bowl rosters tonight and a few Steelers were honored.
Ben Roethlisberger, Maurkice Pouncey, Mike Wallace will represent the Steelers on offense. Troy Polamalu is the lone representative for the defense and, surprisingly, Antonio Brown is the AFC's starting KR. Pouncey and Polamalu are 'starters.'
Brown is a little bit of a surprise. A few other Steelers were probably close -- Heath Miller, Brown (WR) and Ike Taylor come to mind. It's not worth getting worked up over. This whole thing is pretty meaningless in the end.
The Pro Bowl will take place on Jan. 29, 2012 in Hawaii.
